By Collins Mtika
The political landscape heading into Malawi’s 2025 tripartite elections has undergone dramatic shifts in alliances and party structures, altering previous predictions and power dynamics.
Two major developments have reshaped alliances and rivalries in the political arena: the formation of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by former DPP senior member Kondwani Nankhumwa after his expulsion from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the tragic loss of UTM leader Saulos Chilima in a plane crash.
The upcoming 2025 tripartite elections present one of the most complex political scenarios in Malawi’s democratic history. The implementation of the 50+1 system, requiring a presidential candidate to secure an absolute majority, has transformed electoral strategies and dynamics.
The Malawi Congress Party (MCP), led by President Lazarus Chakwera, approaches these elections facing the challenges of incumbency. While the party holds significant support in its traditional central region stronghold, its governance record since 2020 has faced persistent economic challenges.
Foreign exchange shortages, rising inflation, and fuel availability issues have tested public patience. Although initially well-received, the administration’s anti-corruption campaign has faced criticism for perceived selective justice and slow progress in prosecuting high-profile cases.
MCP’s campaign strategy will likely focus on infrastructure developments achieved during their tenure, including road construction projects and rural electrification. However, they will need to address growing public dissatisfaction amid economic struggles.
While the party’s central-region stronghold remains important, it may not be enough under the 50+1 system, which necessitates broader coalition-building efforts.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) faces unique challenges and opportunities as it strives to regain support. Despite losing power in 2020, the party maintains substantial support, particularly in the southern region. The DPP’s internal conflicts reached a decisive point with the expulsion of Kondwani Nankhumwa, which led to the formation of the PDP and reshaped the opposition landscape in the south, where both the DPP and Nankhumwa’s new PDP have strong bases.
Now more firmly under former President Peter Mutharika’s control, the DPP faces the challenge of maintaining its support base while dealing with a new rival who knows its organisational structure and strategy intimately.
Nankhumwa’s PDP enters the scene with both advantages and challenges. His experience and established networks in the southern region provide a strong foundation, but as a new party, the PDP must rapidly build organisational structures and establish itself as a credible alternative to both the ruling MCP and his former party, the DPP.
The PDP’s success hinges on its ability to attract disaffected DPP members and build a distinct political identity.
Although the DPP’s reputation remains tainted by past corruption scandals, its experience in government and established campaign machinery could prove valuable. To mount a serious challenge, the DPP needs to present a unified front and develop a compelling narrative that addresses both its past governance issues and proposes a credible alternative to the current administration.
Following the tragic loss of Saulos Chilima, the UTM faces a pivotal leadership and identity challenge. Having built its identity largely around Chilima’s personality and reform agenda, the party must navigate a difficult leadership transition while maintaining its appeal to its core urban and youth constituencies.
UTM’s future political alliances and even its existence as a significant political force hang in the balance as it grapples with this unprecedented loss.
Smaller parties and independent candidates will play a crucial role under the 50+1 system.
Parties like the People’s Party (PP) and Alliance for Democracy (AFORD), while unlikely to win the presidency outright, could become kingmakers in coalition negotiations. The system encourages these smaller parties to build alliances and negotiate positions in potential coalition governments.
The 50+1 majority requirement has profoundly impacted campaign strategies and resource allocation. Parties can no longer rely solely on their regional strongholds but must campaign nationally to build the broad support base needed for victory. This requirement has made elections more expensive and logistically challenging for all parties. It also raises the likelihood of a runoff, as achieving an absolute majority in the first round will require exceptional political skill and resources.
Regional dynamics continue to influence political calculations. The northern region, traditionally a swing-vote area, could prove crucial in determining the election outcome. The southern region’s voting patterns, historically favourable to the DPP, might shift depending on the party’s ability to resolve its internal conflicts. The central region, while traditionally supporting MCP, has shown increasing political sophistication and willingness to consider alternatives.
Rising inflation, currency shortages, and unemployment are likely to dominate campaign narratives. The successful management of these issues could be decisive in determining voter choices. International observers and donors will closely monitor these elections, particularly regarding electoral integrity and democratic processes.
The Malawi Electoral Commission’s capacity to manage another potentially complex electoral process, including possible runoffs, will be crucial. The most likely outcome appears to be a closely contested election leading to a runoff, with the final victory determined by coalition-building abilities and negotiation skills rather than first-round performance alone.
The 2025 elections will be a crucial test of Malawi’s democratic institutions and political maturity. Maintaining peace and stability during this period will be paramount, particularly given the high stakes and potential for electoral disputes.
The outcome of these elections could significantly impact Malawi’s development trajectory and international relations. Successfully conducting another peaceful transfer of power, if it occurs, would further strengthen Malawi’s democratic credentials and potentially attract greater international support and investment.
To win, each party will need to:
– Present a credible plan for economic recovery
– Build broad-based coalitions across regional and ethnic lines
– Address corruption concerns effectively
– Maintain peace and stability during the campaign period
– Develop actionable solutions to Malawi’s development challenges
The ultimate winner will face the immediate challenge of uniting the country and addressing pressing economic issues while managing a potentially complex coalition government.
